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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-06-21 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210841 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 The elongated low-level center of Claudette is located over eastern North Carolina this morning, while a curved band of convection continues pushing eastward across the adjacent coastal and offshore waters. Surface pressures have fallen slightly overnight near the estimated center position, and Frying Pan Shoals buoy 41013 off the coast of southeastern North Carolina reported a brief period of sustained tropical-storm-force winds shortly after 06 UTC. Therefore, Claudette's initial intensity is raised to 35 kt with this advisory, making it a tropical storm once again. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough that is approaching the eastern United States. The storm will move off the North Carolina coast within the next few hours, and a bit more strengthening is possible today as it passes near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. The official NHC forecast hangs onto Claudette as a tropical cyclone through tonight, then quickly transitions it to a post-tropical cyclone by 36 h. The time of dissipation is also moved up a day earlier with this advisory, which is consistent with the latest global model fields that show an open trough approaching Atlantic Canada. Otherwise, the official NHC forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the multi-model consensus. Some of the global guidance suggests that Claudette could lose its closed low-level circulation and open up into a trough soon after emerging into the western Atlantic Ocean later today. Given the current poor center definition, it is a plausible alternative scenario that Claudette dissipates faster than shown below. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue over the North Carolina coast this morning. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the North Carolina coast through this morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 35.6N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 21/1800Z 37.0N 74.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 42.8N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
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