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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-06-21 16:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Claudette's low-level center is estimated to be back over water. However, it is difficult to locate in surface observation data due to the broad inner-core wind field and elongated pressure envelope near the NC/VA coasts in which the cyclone is embedded. For now, the surface center has been placed close to the low- to mid-level circulation center noted in KAKQ and KMHX Doppler radar data. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 1200 UTC 32-kt wind report from ship 3EVZ8 located about 130 nmi southeast of the center. Claudette continues to accelerate east-northeastward and the motion is now 060/24 kt. The track forecast and discussion remain pretty straightforward. Claudette is now caught up in the deep-layer west-southwesterly flow on the north side of a broad subtropical ridge and ahead of a mid-latitude trough currently moving into the eastern and southeastern United States. The cyclone or its remnants will gradually lift out toward the northeast ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough by tonight, with that motion continuing through Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of consensus track models TVCA, GFEX, and HCCA. As Claudette continues to accelerate, its increased forward speed could result in the low-level wind field opening up into a trough, which would result in the cessation of the system as a tropical cyclone. For now, however, the assumption is that the cyclone could strengthen a little more, which would allow for the surface wind field to remain closed today and into Tuesday until the system weakens over the cold North Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream, which is located along roughly 38N latitude. As a result, Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about 24 h, follows by dissipation in about 48 h. The official NHC intensity forecast remains very similar to the previous one, and the track closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN. Key Message: 1. Heavy rain from Claudette will continue to diminish this morning across far southeast Virginia and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 37.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 38.7N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 41.8N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0000Z 44.8N 59.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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