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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-19 16:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191439 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located over southern Mississippi. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are still located on the storm's east side and extend across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range forecast times. In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today. In 36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the center is located over eastern North Carolina. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. These winds will continue for a few more hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 31.0N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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