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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-07-07 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 071433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032019 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 07 2019 After a brief convective hiatus overnight, a small burst of thunderstorms has redeveloped near and to the northeast of the low-level center this morning, making positioning of the tropical cyclone a little difficult. However, convection has been on the wane during the past couple of hours despite relatively low vertical wind shear conditions. The initial intensity has been maintained at 35 kt due to the increase in central convection. The initial position and motion estimate of 305/08 kt are based primarily on passive microwave satellite data. Cosme is forecast to maintain a northwestward to west-northwestward motion over the next few days due to the influence of a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. A 72-hr post-tropical position was added due to the global models now hanging on to a closed surface low a little bit longer. Otherwise, the new NHC forecast track is similar to but north of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more northward initial position, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and the simple consensus models. Cosme is moving over over marginal 26-deg-C SSTs, and the water beneath the cyclone is forecast to cool to near 25C in about 24 hours. The unfavorable oceanic conditions, combined with the entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, should result in complete loss of deep convection near the center by Monday. As a result, Cosme is forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into post-tropical remnant low on Monday, and dissipate in the 72-96 hour time period. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 17.7N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 18.4N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 19.7N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 21.2N 124.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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