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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091442 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative that some strengthening may soon occur. The initial wind speed estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to weaken shortly thereafter. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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