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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-09 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 437 WTPZ45 KNHC 092036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the consensus aids. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3, so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed compared to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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