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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-10 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100843 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours. A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images. The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this advisory. Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions. However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. The combination of these negative factors for the storm should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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