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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-10 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However, this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt. It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin. By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term, and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous official forecast. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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