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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-07-11 05:16:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 683 WTPZ45 KNHC 110316 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various estimates. Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general, the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days. Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then become a post-tropical remnant low early next week. The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific. After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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