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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-07-11 10:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days. Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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