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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-07 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 031 WTPZ45 KNHC 070232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that convection has increased and become better organized since the previous advisory, although convection has waned somewhat during the past couple of hours due to entrainment of dry mid-level air. A 2213Z SSMI overpass showed a small but well-defined mid-level eye feature in the 85 GHz data and the latest TAFB satellite classification was T2.0/30 kt. Based on the improved banding features and the mid-level eye, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt, based on a blend of TAFB and microwave satellite fixes. Cristina is expected to be steered west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the south-central and southwestern United States. The latest NHC model guidance has become more tightly packed around the previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were made in the form of a slightly faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast lies close to the simple consensus models, which are a little south of the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Cristina is expected to remain in quite favorable environmental and oceanic conditions for the next 72 h or so. The small inner-core eye-like feature and the expected low vertical shear and impressive upper-level outflow conditions suggest that rapid intensification (RI) could occur at some point occur during that time. However, recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the eastern semicircle has eroded convection in that part of the circulation, and the dry air may have even penetrated into and disrupted the inner core itself. Given the aforementioned uncertainty in the structure of the cyclone, RI is not being explicitly forecast at this time, although the official intensity forecast is higher than the previous advisory through 96 h. By 120 h, significant weakening should be well underway when Cristina will be moving over 24-deg-C sea-surface temperatures. The NHC official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, and there is a distinct possibility that Cristina could undergo RI and also become a major hurricane if the inner-core region has not been disrupted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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