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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-07-11 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 kt at 1335Z. The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southward initial position. Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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