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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-07 16:48:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 071448 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of a long curved band that goes around portions of its western semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest multi-model consensus at all forecast times. The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two, a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to weakening over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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