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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-08 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been gradually increasing in association with Cristina during the past several hours. However, the storm still lacks banding features and the low-level center is located on the northeastern side of the convection due to moderate wind shear. An ASCAT-B overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds of only 30-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory blending the ASCAT data with the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist air mass for the next couple of days. These favorable conditions combined with lessening wind shear should promote steady strengthening during the next two days or so. However, beyond that time, Cristina is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 C and into a progressively drier and more stable environment. These negative factors for the cyclone should promote weakening after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward from the previous one, but it still lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term in case Cristina takes advantage of the generally conducive conditions for intensification. The tropical storm has turned a little to the left recently, but its longer term motion is still west-northwestward at 13 kt. A deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to remain stationary, and that should cause the cyclone to continue moving west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next 4 days or so. By the end of the forecast period, a slight turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system is expected to be steered by the low-level flow. The track models are tightly packed, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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