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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-06-04 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040239 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Geostationary satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, indicate that Cristobal has moved very little since the previous advisory, and that the convective structure of the cyclone remains fairly well-organized with several bands wrapping around the circulation. The center is still located just south of Ciudad del Carmen, and the observing site at that location reported a pressure of around 995 mb earlier this evening. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, assuming some reduction in wind speed has taken place. Additional gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so while the center moves slowly inland over eastern Mexico. Cristobal is expected to emerge over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and some re-intensification is forecast to occur. After that time, some additional strengthening is forecast while Cristobal moves northward toward the northern Gulf coast, but the overall environment is not expected to be particularly conducive for intensification. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous advisory, and it is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Although Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past several hours, a slow southeastward or eastward motion should commence overnight. Increasing southerly flow around a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to begin moving northward on Friday, and a northward or north-northwestward motion should continue through Saturday with Cristobal approaching the northern Gulf coast by later in the weekend. The new NHC track forecast is again very similar to the previous NHC advisory and is close to the various consensus models. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 48 through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday morning, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.3N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 18.0N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0000Z 18.4N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1200Z 19.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0000Z 21.3N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1200Z 23.1N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 24.9N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 28.8N 91.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
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