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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 059 WTNT43 KNHC 070241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to exhibit more of a subtropical appearance in satellite images with a broad wind field and a limited amount of deep convection near the center. The most intense convection has been in a squall line that is well east of the center near or over portions of the Florida peninsula. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters support holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Cristobal recently passed very near NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico, which was helpful in assessing the storm's minimum pressure. Cristobal is moving northward at about 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for about another day, taking the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. After the storm makes landfall, a slight turn to the northwest is expected on Monday in response to a mid-level ridge shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. The track models are in very good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Cristobal has about another 18-24 hours over water in which it could strengthen. However, given its broad structure, lack of deep convection near the center, and dry air that is wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation, only a little strengthening is predicted. After the storm makes landfall, steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical depression by late Monday. Cristobal is a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin overnight along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue from central to north Florida overnight, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana on Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains into Tuesday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller rivers, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf coast through the Mississippi River Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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