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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-06-03 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 031455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt. Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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