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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-07-04 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040239 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE... LATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BE LOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOT STORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS INCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. DALILA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY...TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 17.6N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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