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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-06-30 16:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 301431 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NEAR 340/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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