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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-07-19 16:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191443 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the inner core cloud tops have warmed since last night and deep convective banding has become fragmented. Although Darby has exhibited an intermittent ragged eye feature, a blend of the subjective Final-T and CI-numbers, and the objective ADT estimate, yield an intensity of 60 kt. Additionally, the ambiguity solution of an earlier ASCAT overpass revealed only a couple of 50-55 kt winds over the northern quadrant. Accordingly, Darby's initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is currently traversing sub-25C water, but should be moving back over slightly warmer water east of the Hawaiian Islands near the 36 hour period. Darby, however, will also be moving into a more stable thermodynamic environment and modest southwesterly shear around the same time. Therefore, these contributing factors are expected to cause Darby to gradually weaken through the period. The official intensity forecast is based primarily on the model consensus, IVCN, which includes the HWRF hurricane model, and is above both the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity models. The track forecast philosophy remains similar to the previous forecast. The cyclone should continue on a generally westward heading to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored along 30N for the next few days. At the 96 hour period, Darby is forecast to slow its forward speed as it encounters a growing weakness in the ridge while a mid- to upper-level low digs north of the Hawaiian Islands. This synoptic feature should turn Darby gradually northwestward, east of the Big Island. The NHC forecast is located between the TVCE multi-model consensus and both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean guidance which are both situated north of the Hawaiian Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.8N 135.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 20.1N 137.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 20.1N 139.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.1N 141.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 19.7N 143.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 19.4N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 19.9N 151.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 21.6N 153.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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