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Tropical Storm DARBY Forecast Discussion Number 34
2016-07-20 04:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 200231 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Darby continues to maintain deep convection near its center, and in fact the convective cloud tops have cooled a bit over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate, 55 kt, is unchanged from the past advisory and is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The storm should encounter modestly increasing vertical shear and drier air over the next several days, but will be moving over slightly warmer waters. These factors should result in only a slow rate of weakening over the forecast period, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the model consensus and above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance. It is worth noting however, that longer-range intensity prediction has little skill. Based on geostationary and microwave fixes, the westward motion, 280/11 kt, continues. The track forecast reasoning has not changed. A mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the southern Great Plains should continue to steer Darby on a westward or slightly south-of-westward heading for the next few days. In the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level cyclone to the north of the Hawaiian Islands should cause Darby to turn toward the northwest. The official forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus. However, the GFS and ECMWF ensemble tracks show considerable spread on days 3-5, indicating a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast track late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.0N 137.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.0N 139.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 141.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 144.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 19.2N 146.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 19.1N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 20.2N 152.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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