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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 30
2015-07-18 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 182034 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of tropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. However, deep convection continues to weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface temperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius. Maximum surface winds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and Dolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not regenerate deep convection near the center. Most of the global models then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the coast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated in the official forecast at that time. Dolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward until dissipation. The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just to the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions. Moisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern United States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona, southern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. Please refer to statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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