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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-07-23 16:38:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052019 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019 Dalila continues to battle 15-20 kt of northerly shear with deep convection displaced across the southern semicircle of the storm. Satellite imagery indicates that there are multiple low level swirls encircling a mean center that is located just north of the edge of the convection. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and UW-CIMMS support maintaining a 35 kt initial intensity for this advisory. The initial motion is 330/07. A mid-level ridge over the southwestern United States will steer the cyclone to the northwest through much of tonight. As the system weakens, it will become steered by an increasing component of the low-level flow, resulting in a turn more to the west-northwest Wednesday and Thursday. Similar to the past few model cycles, the latest guidance has shifted slightly to the west, and therefore the official forecast track has also been adjusted a little in that direction. Dalila is approaching the 26 C isotherm and the center is forecast to cross it in about 12 hours, which should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight. In addition, the current shear is not expected to decrease significantly in the next day or so, and during that time the cyclone will be moving into a drier, more stable environment. These factors should cause Dalila to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by Wednesday night. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous official intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.7N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.3N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
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