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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-19 04:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Deep convection has been trying to consolidate closer to the estimated center of Dolores over the past several hours, suggesting that the broad circulation of the cyclone may be starting to contract. The CIMSS ADT and SATCON indicated some strengthening since the previous advisory, which justified increasing the storm's intensity to 45 kt for the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory. The recent Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are in agreement with this value, and therefore 45 kt will be this advisory's initial intensity. Dolores is moving to the northwest at 8 kt around the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its east. A turn to the north-northwest along with a slight increase in forward speed is expected to occur through Sunday morning. There is about 120 n mi of spread in the track guidance at 24 h, and with the cyclone's angle of approach to the coast of Mexico, a variation in the track produces a large difference in the coastlines potentially affected by Dolores. The westernmost guidance has the center of the cyclone clipping the coast just north of Manzanillo in about 24 h, while the easternmost solutions make landfall in about 18 h near Punta San Telmo. Overall, the guidance has shifted little this evening, and therefore the latest NHC track forecast is very near the previous one, which lies near the various multi-model track consensus. This track would take the center of Dolores across the coast between Punta San Telmo and Manzanillo early Saturday afternoon. The surrounding environmental conditions are favorable for Dolores to continue to strengthen, with the main inhibiting factor being the broad circulation as indicated by an ASCAT overpass earlier this afternoon. Dolores is currently forecast to peak at an intensity of 55 kt by late Saturday morning before making landfall. How much the circulation consolidates over the next 12-18 h will likely determine if the peak intensity of Dolores prior to landfall is higher or lower than indicated. After landfall, Dolores should rapidly weaken over the rugged terrain of western Mexico, with the guidance in good agreement on dissipating the cyclone by Sunday morning. Other than indicating an earlier dissipation, the new NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Dolores is expected to continue strengthening tonight and early on Saturday, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday afternoon. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for portions of the southwestern and west-central coasts of Mexico. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 16.3N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 17.6N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 20.0N 104.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 22.6N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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