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Tropical Storm Dora Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-06-25 10:38:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250838 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017 400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been intensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been increasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday. Microwave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some primitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the increased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5 from TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. There are no obvious environmental impediments to further strengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in good agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a hurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much cooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the cyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The latest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement with the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models. The initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A large mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should continue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple of days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once the cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level winds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track, resulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the coast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore. Only cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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