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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-12 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120232 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard, the fifth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on satellite estimates of T2.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB, SAB and UW CIMSS. The cloud pattern is now more symmetric with the low-level center embedded within the deep convection. The upper-level outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere. Although the atmospheric environment--including increasing wind shear--is not ideal for strengthening, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalous warm waters in the north central Atlantic during the next few days. This will likely aid the intensification process, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11 knots. The subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone on that general track is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a large mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. This new pattern should force Edouard to turn northward by the end of the forecast period, and eventually to recurve over the open Atlantic. There is confidence in the northward turn since that is the solution of most of the track guidance. The NHC forecast follows very close the multi-model consensus TVCA and an average of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.3N 39.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 19.0N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 20.3N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 21.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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