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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-06-30 16:59:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 301458 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low pressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has become better organized overnight. First-light visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the northwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim Savannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900 UTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200 UTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center. Based primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial intensity estimate is set at 45 kt. The initial motion estimate is 310/10. Elida should move northwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico, in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending southwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion of the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone reaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift shown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast period, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the coast at a faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day 5. Although the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track of Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit significant intensification during the next few days. After about 72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone should be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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