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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-07-01 04:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010244 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014 Overall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little during the past 6 to 12 hours. The center briefly became exposed to the northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Since that time, a new burst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed near and over the the center. The intitial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data. Recent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably today, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt. The global model guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of weak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this time, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should cause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast during the first few days. Little change in strength is expected during the next two to three days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear. After Elida begins moving westward later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.4N 104.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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