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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-07-01 10:48:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010848 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 The cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold cloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This structure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly shear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal for intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from the outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level trough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a weakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a little restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model. It appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours, with a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The track model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow southeastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast period while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a mid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should induce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC forecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours, following the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally close to the previous NHC track after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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