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Tropical Storm ELIDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-07-01 22:36:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 012036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052014 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014 Strong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the cyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots. These winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will continue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a trough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such models. Elida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the multi-model consensus trend. The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm warning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the coast during the next 12 to 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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