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Tropical Storm EMILY Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-07-31 13:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311152 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west- central coast of Florida. Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. Little change in strength is expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight. The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Emily is expected to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be possible in the coastal waters within the warning area. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard Intermediate Public advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1200Z 27.7N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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