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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-07-15 16:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 151432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little less organized than yesterday while microwave data show that Enrique's circulation continues to be tilted. The low-level center remains located on the southern edge of the weakening deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies are lower than earlier, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 40 kt. The circulation is already moving over 25 degree Celsius waters. Most of the guidance shows weakening and then dissipation in about 48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. Enrique has been moving on a steady west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 7 kt steered by the flow to the south of a narrow subtropical ridge. As Enrique weakens further and the steering flow collapses, the cyclone should begin to drift westward or meander until dissipation. The NHC forecast and track guidance are in good agreement primarily during the next to 36 to 48 hours while Enrique is still expected to be a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 19.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 20.2N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 20.7N 136.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 20.0N 137.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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