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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-07-15 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the upper-level outflow has become poorly defined. The area of deep convection has shrunk while the low-level center remains located on the southern edge of the thunderstorm activity. The latest Dvorak estimates support lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt. Enrique is already over relatively cool waters and additional weakening is forecast, with the system becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. In fact, the SHIPS model, as well as the intensity model consensus, dissipate the cyclone in 36 hours or so. Enrique is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 7 knots. However, the narrow ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in a day or two and the steering currents are expected to collapse. This steering pattern will likely keep Enrique and its remnants moving slowly toward the west-northwest or west, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, until dissipation occurs in 4 or 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.0N 133.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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