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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2015-07-16 16:35:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 161435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015 While the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease, data from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space Station suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds near 1100 UTC. Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Enrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's dissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return, Enrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner. The initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should continue for another 24 hours or so. After that, steering currents weaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down. Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward, then southward in a few days. The latest NHC track is close to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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