je.st
news
Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2015-07-17 10:56:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170856 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 Data from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that Enrique had not weakened quite as much as earlier estimated, and that there were still tropical storm force winds over the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt, resulting in the redesignation of the system as a tropical storm. Several hours ago, there was a small burst of deep convection over the northern portion of the circulation. Recently, however that convection is dissipating. Enrique should be traversing waters cooler than 25 deg C and entraining rather stable air. Therefore, weakening is still anticipated and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours. This is also consistent with the SHIPS guidance. The center appears to be gradually turning to the left and the initial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Over the next few days, Enrique should continue to turn to the left, and move in a general counterclockwise loop while embedded within a low- to mid-level cyclonic gyre. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 20.6N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||