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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-07-13 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130842 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become a bit better organized with a growing curved band in the southern semicircle and more persistent convection near the center. Given the improved satellite presentation and the 35-kt Dvorak estimates, I've elected to upgrade the depression to Enrique for this advisory. The tropical storm has a day or two to strengthen before it moves into an area of cooler SSTs, drier air, and higher vertical wind shear. Most of the guidance support some intensification, so the intensity forecast will remain close to the previous one, on the higher side of the model envelope. After a bit of a northward jump, Enrique appears to be moving northwestward at about 9 kt. The track should gradually bend back to the west-northwest over the next couple of days while the storm is steered by a building mid-level ridge. The long-range forecast is rather uncertain due to possible interactions with both Dolores to the east and a mid-latitude trough to the north. Overall, the guidance has shifted north and west at most of the forecast points, and the NHC track prediction follows suit, lying near or just to the southeast of the consensus at most forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 15.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 16.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 16.8N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.4N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.8N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 19.3N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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