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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-13 22:48:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132048 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015 The main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly fragmented. Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from ADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus Enrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt. A partial pass by the ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force winds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center. It appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining organized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5 deg C in less than two days. Additionally, the vertical shear - which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt out of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of an upper-level high. The combination of these effects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after a day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about four days. The official intensity forecast is based upon the multimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from the previous NHC forecast. Enrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north. The dynamical models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a west-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today. It is possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has begun this turn toward the west-northwest. After moving toward the west-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next three to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a remnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow weakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this scenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel consensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted track from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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