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Tropical Storm ENRIQUE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-07-14 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140835 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015 Deep convection associated with Enrique has increased in coverage overnight, however, the overall organization of the system has not changed appreciably. A recent ASCAT overpass was very helpful in locating the center, and indicated that the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. Little change in intensity is forecast during the next day or so. After that time, Enrique is expected to weaken while it moves into an area of increasing southerly wind shear and over cooler waters. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in about 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. Enrique is expected to continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate as the low-level steering flow weakens over the far eastern Pacific due to the approach of Dolores' large circulation. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but shows the remnant low becoming nearly stationary a bit east of the previous 4- and 5-day positions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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