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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-07-08 22:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082036 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ERICK HAS TAKEN ON A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED...AND A 1730Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. THE APPARENT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH ERICK...AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ERICK HAS PROBABLY MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/9. A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT... LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.6N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.6N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 24.7N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 25.4N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 25.7N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
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