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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-07-05 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051452 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED...WITH TIGHT BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT SOME INNER CORE FEATURES HAVE FORMED WITH PERHAPS THE START OF AN EYEWALL ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT... A BIT BELOW THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION FROM OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE LEADING THE INTENSITY CHANGE. CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS AGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE TYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID DECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL STAY OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING ON ABOUT THE SAME PATH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FIRST 48H...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT LEAST 90 NMI OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STAY FIRM OR IF AN UPPER LOW WILL ERODE PART OF THE RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.8N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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