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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-07-05 22:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052044 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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