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Tropical Storm ERIN Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-08-15 16:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151439 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1500 UTC THU AUG 15 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 26.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 26.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 25.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 28.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 31.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.7N 33.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N 35.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 26.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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