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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-07-17 22:49:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 172049 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Recent satellite data have given mixed signals on the overall structure of Estelle. In visible satellite pictures, a band of convection has wrapped around the center, and what looks like a ragged eye has appeared. However, recent microwave imagery suggest that the structure is not as well organized with the low-level center displaced to west of the mid-level center, likely the result of continued northwesterly shear. Subjective T-numbers of 4.0 from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt, but, given the lack of inner-core organization, the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. Recent ASCAT data revealed a large radius of maximum winds, and larger area of tropical-storm-force winds, which required an outward adjustment of the wind radii. Estelle continues to move westward to west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the previous advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to move west-northwestward to the south of a strong subtropical ridge during the next several days. Estelle will be nearing the western portion of the ridge by day 5 and a turn toward the northwest is predicted near the end of the period. Although the guidance is still in fairly good agreement, most of the models have shifted northward this cycle. The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly, but it lies just south of the multi-model consensus and the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks. The moderate northwesterly shear over the tropical storm is expected to weaken during the next 24 hours, which should allow for gradual intensification. Estelle is predicted to reach peak intensity in 36-48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance. After that time, cooler water and a more stable airmass should induce weakening, and Estelle is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 18.0N 117.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 18.4N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 19.0N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.0N 128.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown
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