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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-07-18 04:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 180234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016 Estelle looks a little less organized than this afternoon, since the eye feature seen on previous microwave imagery has disappeared and the tropical cyclone is displaying a more asymmetric pattern. The initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB. It seems like some northwesterly shear is preventing much intensification at this time. The shear, however, should abate during the next 24 hours, which would allow for gradual strengthening until the storm reaches cooler water in a couple of days. Thereafter, a more steady weakening is likely, and Estelle should become post-tropical in about 5 days while it moves over 23 deg C waters. The models have backed off somewhat on the peak intensity, and the official forecast follows suit, although the new prediction is higher than the consensus for the first few days. Best estimate of initial motion is to the west-northwest at about 8 kt. Estelle should continue to move on that general course for the next couple of days, with perhaps a bend toward the west in 3 days due to the subtropical ridge to the north temporarily strengthening. Overall, the global models are showing less ridging between 130-140W at long range, which would cause Estelle to turn west-northwestward or even northwestward by the end of the forecast period. Accordingly, most of the models have again shifted northward this cycle, and the official forecast is moved in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 17.0N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 17.4N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 18.0N 116.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 117.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.6N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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