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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2016-07-19 22:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning. The tropical storm still has several broken bands of convection around the circulation but microwave data indicate that there has been no improvement in the inner-core structure. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased to T3.5, and the initial intensity is set to 55 kt for this advisory. Estelle's intensity forecasts have not been golden since the tropical cyclone has refused to strengthen during the past couple of days. There still appears to be a short window in which Estelle could strengthen, but given the lack of inner-core structure, it appears unlikely that significant intensification will occur. As a result, the NHC forecast now shows little change in wind speed tonight. Weakening should begin on Thursday and continue during the remainder of the period as Estelle moves over cooler water and into a more stable airmass. The tropical cyclone is expected to lose convection and become a remnant low within 72 hours. There has been no significant change to the track forecast or reasoning. Estelle continues moving west-northwestward to the south of the strong subtropical ridge that has steered all of the July eastern Pacific tropical cyclone westward to west- northwestward. The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast to weaken in about 72 hours, which should cause Estelle or its remnant low to turn northwestward by day 4. The track guidance is very tightly clustered and the NHC track is near an average of the GFS/ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.0N 119.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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