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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 25
2016-07-21 16:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211433 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Estelle continues to feature a small area of deep convection mainly to the northwest of the estimated low-level center location. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Weakening is forecast since Estelle will be moving over cooler SSTs and the shear is expected to increase. These factors should result in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-tropical in 24 to 36 hours. The remnant low of Estelle should dissipate in 4 or 5 days. The initial motion estimate is 285/13, as Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south- central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery of the ridge and turn northwestward by 48 hours, and this northwestward motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48 hours and is near the latest TVCN consensus. A larger westward adjustment was made at days 3 and 4, trending toward a leftward shift in the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 20.1N 128.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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