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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2016-07-21 22:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 212036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Estelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west of the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over SSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result in Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post- tropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner. The remnant low of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/14. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central United States. Estelle should continue moving around the periphery of the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this motion should continue through dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one following the latest trend in the guidance. The official forecast is close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new multi-model consensus aid TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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