je.st
news
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 27
2016-07-22 04:52:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220252 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016 Convection associated with Estelle has decreased during the past several hours, and there is currently no organized convection present. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the subsequent decay of the convection. Cold water, a dry air mass, and increasing shear should cause continued weakening, with Estelle likely to decay to a remnant low sometime on Friday. The system is subsequently forecast to weaken to a trough after 72 hours. The initial motion remains 290/14 kt. Estelle is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central United States, and it is heading for a break in the ridge caused by a large deep-layer low over the northeastern Pacific. This combination should produce a general west-northwestward to northwestward motion until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is basically an update of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics