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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 28
2016-07-22 10:36:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220836 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016 Estelle has been devoid of deep convection since 0000 UTC. The circulation, however, is still vigorous. Based on continuity and a recent ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 35 kt. Since the cyclone is moving over increasingly cooler waters, additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle will likely degenerate into a remnant low today, and probably will dissipate during the weekend. I would not be surprised if the system generates sporadic bursts of thunderstorms during the next day or so. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track steered by the flow around the subtropical ridge until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.3N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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