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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-07-16 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160243 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 The convective structure of the tropical cyclone improved this evening with a curved band reaching halfway around its center. Correspondingly, the subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications each bumped up to a CI number of 2.5, or 35 kt. This is also consistent with the earlier scatterometer pass which showed a maximum of 30 kt at 17Z, when the convective structure was not as organized. Thus the system is now a tropical storm, both the fifth one of the eastern North Pacific season as well as the fifth one in a very busy two-week period. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt, south of an east-west oriented subtropical ridge. The cyclone should be steered toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower forward speed for the next few days. All of the reliable global and regional model track guidance are in close agreement and the NHC official track is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The intensity forecast, however, is a bit more uncertain. In the short term, the environment looks generally conducive with moderate northeasterly vertical shear, very warm water, and quite moist conditions. While the shear drops to very low values in about two days, Estelle should start moving over cooler water induced by the upwelling and mixing from the Blas-Celia-Darby trio of storms ahead of it. Thus it is anticipated that the cyclone should steadily intensify and then it may reach its peak strength at about day three. At the longer lead times, gradual weakening may commence if the track stays over the cooler water. This forecast is based upon the consensus of the Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is slightly higher than the previous advisory through day three and about the same at days four and five. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.7N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.7N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.5N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.1N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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